Pursuing Outcomes Process

I'm pondering leading indicators this morning.  What are the signals that indicate predictable outcomes, both positive and negative outcomes.  

More broadly, the whole framework of outcomes and the activities that lead to outcomes is interesting. It's kind of like this...

1. Fact - Experience and genetic bias, which leads to ...
2. Belief - Beliefs about circumstances, which leads to ...
3. Desire - Needs or desires, which leads to ...
4. Vision - Imagined desired outcomes, which may lead to ...
5. Plan - A plan, which is a system of intermediate outcomes, which may lead to ...
6. Action - Actions, impacts on the real world, which ideally lead to ...
7. Change - Real desired outcomes, i.e. change.
8. Check - How does the change align with the desire?
9. Repeat - Repeat the above steps.

Of course, it's more complicated than that but that's the straight line idealistic flow.  The multi-dimensional version of this is much more nuanced and interesting.  The process may be terminated at any step, it may go wrong (have error introduced) at any step, it may be arbitrary at any step.  Each step also begs for a deeper analysis.  There's also the orthogonal perspective that the execution of this process is a collection of facts that inform other pursuits of outcomes.  It also may be interesting to, among other things, explore the roles of analysis and technology in this process.

Experience

 An interesting aspect of experience is that when you have little of it many issues arise that can seem traumatic.  As you gain more experience you begin to realize that many issues are survivable and thus become less traumatic.  As you age you generally accumulate a lot of experience and many issues that might of been traumatic are less so.  This is an aspect of wisdom.  

In contrast though, when you have a great deal of experience and you encounter an unfamiliar issue then it can be just as traumatic as if you'd encountered it at an earlier age.  This may help to explain the peculiar risk aversion as you get older.  In a sense, it's a reluctance to gain further experience. This may be an aspect of your brain filling up.  Your mental capacity begins to roll off at around age 30.  Whether or not it declines is an open question, but the amount of free space likely dimishes just because it gets consumed by experience.